IPS - Day 2

The next two days focuses on understanding theoretical and experimental probability. We were actually able to start this lesson on the first day and had students complete the 40 die rolls. They completed the results and calculations as homework.

I then had students record their graph results on the board. I think that next year I'll pass around a graph that each group can plot on and then project the results. This will prevent students from waiting around while graphs are plotted on the board.

We discussed what they saw on the graphs (a convergence of the results) and the asked what would happen if we continued rolling the die more and more. I accumulated total counts for all the groups to calculate a value off a larger number.We compared this result to the theoretical result.

We then moved to tossing a hair clip which does not have equal probability. You can use any six-sided, asymmetrical object. I ask students to develop a hypothesis, their guess based on their current understand, as to what the probability might be. We then conducted the experiment and saw comparable graph convergence. We calculated a probability using the cumulative class data. This becomes our best estimate as to what the theoretical value would be. I also convey that we would need millions of tosses to hone in on a value.

We concluded class with students recording their thoughts about the two experiments: similarities, differences, insights, surprises, and understandings.

All of this is building to understanding the connection between experimental and theoretical probability and the Law of Large Numbers.

Visit the class summary page to get a student's perspective on the day's activities and to view slides of the lesson.