IPS - Day 20

Today was focused on looking at probability models and simulating results. The What is the Probability of a Hit investigation from Navigating Through Probability Grades 9-12 provided the source material for today.

This task provides application of much of the basics of probability that has been covered. To complete the investigation, students need to consider independence, mutual exclusivity, sample spaces, unequal probability, and simulation.

I was pleased how students were able to list out the possible outcomes for the sample space. This typically is an issue, but not this time. Calculating the probabilities for each outcome was more problematic. About one-third of the class realized they had independent events and that to have an outcome over three events that the probabilities for each would be multiplied.

The rest of the class simply wanted to count the number of successful outcomes and divide by the total number of outcomes. Since event probabilities are not equal, this approach leads to an incorrect result. After some questioning and guidance, most students understood why they needed to multiply the probabilities.

The next issue came in calculating the outcome of at least a certain number of events. Some students wanted to multiply probabilities, some wanted to count outcomes, and some did not include all of the outcomes they should. After discussion with classmates and questioning, they figured out what they needed to include and how to calculate the results.

The rest of the investigation went smoothly. Students said they were feeling more comfortable with understanding and using probability.

The remainder of the class was spent going through the probability quiz. Students realized they were over-thinking or misunderstood what was being asked. I passed out a second quiz that students will complete over the weekend.

View the class summary for a student's perspective of the class and to view the lesson slides.